Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Forcasting Earthquakes

Keep your eye on Mongolian news. It seems that an earthquake is being predicted for sometime between 8:00 and 11:00 tonight for Ulaanbaatar. Now, I realize that seismologists still proclaim that they can't accurately predict earthquake activity, but that is irrelevant. As the story has been told to me (by several Mongolians), a Russian fortune-teller predicted it. For those of you wondering, it is, in fact, the same fortune-teller that was crowned champion at a recent national (Russian) fortune-telling competition.... I had no idea that fortune-telling was a competitive sport... I think I may have a new career path in mind. Now, this may not seem like a reasonable cause for concern, but the Mongolians seem to be giving it the same attention and concern as an American might if NASA said that a meteor was going to strike the earth.

Now, for this to be reality, we may need to suspend our disbelief. Firstly, it is completely irrelevant that Ulaanbaatar does not sit anywhere near a major fault line (We didn't even feel the quake in Sichuan). Second, the only volcanoes in the country are far in the west, and they have been extinct for millenia, so it is reasonable to believe that one may erupt. Third, Mongolia hasn't even felt the slightest hint of seismic activity since 1957, so there is clearly a long tradition of earthquakes shaking Mongolia. Fourth, Buddhist tradition believes that earthquakes release demons into the world (okay, that has nothing to do with anything, but I had to fit it in somewhere).

So, if you don't hear from me again, it is possible that I am buried in Ulaanbaatar under the rubble. Fear not, however, I have stocked up on beer, so I'll be fine if I'm still alive. Also, if this happens, it is time to stop listening to scientists who do not claim to have the answers, and begin putting our faith in old kooks that we previously would only listen for entertainment purposes.

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